The Braves have won the NL East every year since the 1994 realignment. Yeah, the Expos were leading the division at the time of the 1994 strike, and the Marlins have won two World Series -- one more than the Braves -- despite never winning the division. So what? Everybody is going to pick against the Braves this year, but it's still pretty stupid to pick against a team that's won its division fourteen years in a row.
1. Braves: The Braves probably don't have as much talent as the Mets, but then 2006 won't be the first time in their run that the Braves haven't had the most talented team in the division. Rafael Furcal's departure from Atlanta leaves a hole in the leadoff spot -- who fills that void? Marcus Giles seems the most likely candidate. Edgar Renteria should fill in nicely at short now that he's back in the National League. Andruw Jones probably won't hit 51 homers again, but it's nice to see him finally living up to his massive potential. Chipper Jones has been hurt on and off but is still a solid player. Rookies Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann played well in 2005. The question is in left field, where Kelly Johnson, Matt Diaz and Ryan Langerhans all have a shot at winning the job. Adam LaRoche could be pushed by talented prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia if he doesn't perform, but Salty is probably a year away. The pitching staff is solid but not spectacular; Smoltz and Hudson are just fine, Horacio Ramirez is decent, and the Braves can probably find a couple of guys to fill the back end of the rotation. The bullpen looms as the biggest question mark. Still, everybody's been burned by picking against the Braves the past couple of years.
2. Mets: The Mets are more talented than anybody in this division and at worst should win the NL Wild Card. Carlos Delgado was a nice offseason pickup, and Paul LoDuca, though he's overrated, will fill in nicely for Mike Piazza. David Wright, if you haven't noticed, is pretty good. Carlos Beltran needs to bounce back from a weak 2005 and show why the Mets paid him that kind of money to come to New York. The rotation is aging, though Pedro Martinez is still very good. Tom Glavine hasn't been the same since he left Atlanta. Victor Zambrano isn't all that good; Aaron Heilman will finally get a legit shot at making the rotation. Billy Wagner was another nice offseason addition; he'll anchor the bullpen.
3. Phillies: Their window to win the division is probably gone. Jim Thome and Billy Wagner are both out of Philly; Bobby Abreu is still around, and Ryan Howard should be a nice replacement for Thome, but this really isn't a great team. The starting rotation is decent, but isn't anything to write home about. With the Nationals and Marlins in the division, though, the Phillies shouldn't finish any worse than third.
4. Nationals: Frank Robinson is a good manager, but that's about all that the Nationals have going for them. Ryan Zimmerman should be ready to play third base full-time after just half a season in the minors. Other than that, there's not a whole lot to be excited about. Alfonso Soriano is in town but refuses to play the outfield, and the Nationals already have Jose Vidro at second. Livan Hernandez and John Patterson aren't really an anchor for a pennant-winning rotation. Chad Cordero is solid, but may have worn down a bit over the second half.
5. Marlins: Basically, they're the 2006 version of the Rockies, with a couple of proven, young stars (Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis) and a bunch of other youngsters. Frankly, the Marlins won't really know what they've got with most of their young players until after this season, but the result could be 100 losses in 2006. There's a good base of prospects for the Marlins to contend in a couple of years, but the majority of those guys will need to pan out, and the Marlins shouldn't be expecting immediate results.